WS #10403

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating UK political crisis: Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to outline his exit plan on Monday, with Andy Burnham the favorite to replace him. This is corroborated by CNBC and Polymarket trading activity, and represents a significant political shift that could impact UK assets (GBP, UK equities). Separately, US-Iran peace talks continue to show 'encouraging progress' (Bloomberg), reinforcing the de-escalation narrative that counters the oil supply crisis. However, Trump's threat to impose tolls on Strait of Hormuz traffic (Alpaca News) introduces a new bearish twist for oil and shipping. China's retaliation against US defense firms (NPR) escalates trade tensions. Ukraine drone strikes continue to disrupt Russian oil infrastructure, with Crimea halting civilian gasoline sales. On the corporate side, WiseTech slumps on police probe, SK Hynix surpasses Samsung as South Korea's most valuable company, and Castelake submits three non-binding proposals to buy EasyJet. The narrative arc is: UK political crisis is ESCALATING, US-Iran de-escalation is STABLE (with new Trump threat), China trade retaliation is ESCALATING, Ukraine oil strikes are STABLE.