WS #10404

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran peace roadmap, which is now corroborated by multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg, CNBC, and a Bluesky post from a scholar). The 60-day roadmap has sent oil futures negative and crude below $80, with Goldman Sachs cutting its Brent forecast to $80 for late 2026. This is a significant de-escalation that counters the oil supply crisis. However, counter-signals persist: a Qatar LNG plant blast injured dozens, Iran suspended nuclear talks, and Ukraine drone strikes continue to hit Russian oil infrastructure. Separately, the UK political crisis is escalating: CNBC reports Starmer expected to outline his departure plan today, with Polymarket showing active trading on 'Starmer out' markets. Japan's Nikkei closed at an all-time high, and a peer-beating tech fund doubled China exposure. Germany plans to buy 40% of KNDS before its IPO, a major defense sector signal. The narrative arc is: US-Iran de-escalation is STABLE (with counter-signals), UK political crisis is ESCALATING, Japan equities are BULLISH, and defense sector is BULLISH (KNDS IPO).