WS #10764

The dominant signal in this window is a series of Iraq OPEC-related statements that could materially impact oil prices and energy equities. Iraq's Oil Ministry confirmed that OPEC has begun gradually restoring Iraq's pre-war production allocations, which would strengthen production capacity. This comes alongside reports that the Strait of Hormuz $2m 'service fee' waiver runs to ~Aug.18, and that Oman told allies ships going through Hormuz may have to pay. These developments represent a de-escalation of the oil supply disruption narrative that has been driving crude prices higher. Separately, the Onsemi-Synaptics all-stock deal valued at $6.2 billion is a significant M&A signal in the semiconductor space. US consumer sentiment (Michigan final) came in at 49.5 vs forecast 50, remaining near record lows, confirming persistent consumer weakness. The John Bolton guilty plea is a political development with limited direct market impact. Venezuela earthquake death toll doubled to 589, a humanitarian crisis but not a major market mover. Ukraine drone strikes continue to pressure Russian energy infrastructure, with Crimea declaring a state of emergency after strikes on the energy grid. The Iraq OPEC news is the most actionable signal for energy markets, suggesting potential downside for crude and upside for airlines/consumer discretionary.