WS #10765

The dominant signal in this window is the continued de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz oil supply disruption narrative, with multiple sources confirming that oil flows have rebounded to ~80% of pre-war levels and Saudi Arabia is boosting crude shipments via Red Sea outlets. This is reinforced by a Bloomberg report that Oman warned allies ships transiting Hormuz may face new fees, and a separate report that the $2m 'service fee' waiver runs to ~Aug.18. The net effect is bearish for crude oil and bullish for airlines and consumer discretionary. Separately, the Onsemi-Synaptics all-stock deal valued at $6.2 billion is a confirmed M&A signal in the semiconductor space. US consumer sentiment (Michigan final) came in at 49.5 vs forecast 50, remaining near record lows, confirming persistent consumer weakness. The John Bolton guilty plea is a political development with limited direct market impact. The VW factory closure report (up to 4 factories, 45k additional job cuts) is a negative signal for European auto sector but limited direct US market impact. The OpenAI IPO timeline (2027) is a medium-term signal for AI sector. The Securitize SPAC merger (ticker SECZ) closing July 1 is a crypto/tokenization signal. The China Three Gorges talks to buy German wind assets is a cross-border energy M&A signal.