WS #10797

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in US-Iran military conflict. Multiple independent sources (Axios, KobeissiLetter, Spectator Index, and several Bluesky accounts) report that the US military conducted strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area, with explosions reported in Sirik, southern Iran. This represents a significant escalation from the previous 'tensions' narrative and directly threatens oil shipping through the Strait. Separately, SpaceX issued $25B in senior unsecured notes across five maturities, a massive debt raise that signals confidence in its capital market access despite the macro turmoil. Oracle's stock had its worst week since 2001, down 19%, as AI financing concerns escalate. The Fed's Kashkari projected one rate hike this year, citing doubts over the US-Iran peace deal and AI buildup. The Israel-Lebanon framework agreement was signed, but this is now overshadowed by the Iran escalation. The tech selloff narrative continues, with the S&P 500 dragged to a weekly decline by the tech rout. The Strait of Hormuz escalation is the highest-significance development, with direct implications for oil prices, energy stocks, and broader risk sentiment.