WS #10798

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in US-Iran military conflict. Multiple independent sources (Axios, KobeissiLetter, Spectator Index, and several Bluesky accounts) report that the US military conducted strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area, with explosions reported in Sirik, southern Iran. This represents a significant escalation from the previous 'tensions' narrative and directly threatens oil shipping through the Strait. Separately, Oracle's stock had its worst week since 2001, down 19%, as AI financing concerns escalate. The Fed's Kashkari projected one rate hike this year, citing doubts over the US-Iran peace deal and AI buildup. The Strait of Hormuz escalation is the highest-significance development, with direct implications for oil prices, energy stocks, and broader risk sentiment. Counter-signals include IMF's Gourinchas noting that strategic reserve releases and refinery adjustments have limited oil price spikes, and the US military stating forces remain present to ensure the Iran deal is adhered to, suggesting a calibrated response rather than all-out war.