WS #11070

The dominant theme in this window is the escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's president stated no concessions in talks with the US, while Strait of Hormuz traffic is at 15% of pre-war levels. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bluesky, Reuters reference). The ECB's Wunsch indicated the case for another rate hike is not as strong now, and ECB's Lane noted knock-on effects from higher energy prices will take time. The EU cut tariff-free steel quotas by 33% for close trade partners. UK consumer trends data showed households saving less amid rising prices. India plans strategic crude reserves. Shell expects flat LNG supply due to Middle East conflict. BOJ's Sato made several comments on inflation and policy. Tesla's robotaxi math criticized by Gary Black. Ford recalls over 741k vehicles for transmission issue. UK watchdog pushes Apple and Google on alternative payments. SpaceX IPO allocation error for Korean broker Mirae. US Supreme Court ruling on EU-US data transfers. No counter-signals to the Iran escalation narrative were detected in this window. Key developments include: (1) Iran escalation continues with no concessions and Strait of Hormuz traffic at 15% of pre-war levels, (2) ECB officials signal potential September rate hike despite energy drop, (3) EU halves duty-free steel quotas to protect against Chinese imports, (4) Japan's yen sinks to lowest level since 1986, (5) Italy June preliminary HICP misses expectations at 3.1% y/y vs 3.2% consensus, (6) Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies with Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian fuel supplies and expected massive Russian attack within 72 hours, (7) World Bank retires climate lending goal, (8) Trump orders Hormuz blockade as UK breaks ranks, (9) Apple accelerates software updates amid AI security concerns, (10) EchoStar's Dish DBS set to file for bankruptcy, (11) Kering shares fall 5% on Barclays guidance risk, (12) Digital Realty falls 4% after $3.5B stake in Blackstone data centers, (13) Chip stocks' best quarter ever ending with wild swings, (14) India's monsoon deficit at 42% in June, (15) Warren Buffett suspends Gates Foundation donation amid Epstein audit.