WS #11071

The dominant theme in this window is a de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with Morgan Stanley cutting its oil-price target as the strait reopens faster than expected. This is corroborated by NYT reporting that shipping traffic is picking up again, and by Polymarket contracts on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal. This counters the previous bearish oil narrative. Separately, the ECB's Nagel warned inflation will remain above target, while the EU introduces a €3 tax on low-value imports from Chinese e-commerce platforms (SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress), which could impact consumer discretionary and logistics stocks. India plans to cut reliance on Middle East oil, and Japan and India move toward direct yen-rupee settlements, bypassing the dollar. The Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies with a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia (over 400 drones), hitting oil infrastructure, and the EU disburses €3.9 billion to Ukraine for drones. The Monaco attack is ruled out as terrorism. UK housebuilders face a £4bn class action lawsuit. Medicare will cover obesity drugs (GLP-1s) starting Wednesday, a major catalyst for NVO and LLY. Tesla ESG analysis flags governance risks. AeroVironment's strong earnings spark 'drone super cycle' talk. SAS orders up to 40 Airbus A330s. The US murder rate approaches a record low. Global central banks plan to reduce dollar holdings, per a Bloomberg survey.