WS #11141

The dominant theme in this window is the continued de-escalation of the Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets. Multiple sources (Reuters, FXStreet, GDELT) confirm that oil price forecasts for 2026 have been cut for the first time since the war began, with Brent now expected to average $84.50/bbl (down from $90.44). The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is easing supply fears, with UAE crude exports hitting a record 3.7 million bpd after leaving OPEC. However, Iran's parliamentary speaker insists the US-Iran MoU only provides a temporary fee waiver and that Iran will not give up its rights, creating lingering uncertainty. Oil prices are stabilizing around $73 Brent / $70 WTI after the steepest quarterly drop since 2020. Separately, Nayara Energy in India cut petrol prices by ₹5/litre and diesel by ₹3, the first retail fuel price cut in over two years, reflecting easing crude. The US Dollar Index is rising above 101.00 as traders increase Fed rate hike bets, pressuring gold below $4,000. In corporate news, Microsoft is reportedly planning a new round of layoffs affecting under 2.5% of its workforce (sales, consulting, Xbox), while the US has lifted export controls on Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models. Michael Burry disclosed shorts on Tesla and Nvidia, calling the chip boom the 'beginning of the end'. Japan's Tankan survey showed large manufacturers index at 22 vs 16 est., a strong beat. The Venezuela earthquake aftermath continues with over 1,700 dead, but this is a humanitarian story with limited direct US market impact. The overall narrative is one of geopolitical risk premium unwinding in oil, a strengthening USD, and mixed tech sector signals (Microsoft layoffs, Anthropic export control lift, Burry shorts).