WS #11142

The dominant theme in this window is the continued fragility of the Iran-US ceasefire and its impact on oil markets. Multiple sources (GDELT, Reuters, NYT) confirm that Iran has reiterated that free transit through the Strait of Hormuz is only guaranteed for 60 days under the current MoU, and that Tehran and Oman are advancing a plan to charge mandatory fees for vessels transiting the strait. This directly counters the prevailing narrative of de-escalation and supply normalization. Oil prices have ticked up slightly (Brent +0.45% to $73.28, WTI +0.49% to $69.84) on these breakdown concerns. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries (Ufa and Penza) are confirmed by Zelensky and multiple sources, adding a fresh supply-side risk for refined products. In corporate news, Tesla new registrations in Norway fell 43% YoY in June, a bearish signal for TSLA. Microsoft is reportedly planning layoffs affecting under 2.5% of its workforce, while also considering canceling Marvel's 'Blade' game and potentially shutting down Arkane Studios. The US has lifted export controls on Anthropic's AI models, a positive for AI sector sentiment. Asian factory PMIs (China 51.7, Japan 54.8) showed expansion driven by AI demand, offsetting some war-induced drag. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their best quarter since 2020. The overall narrative is one of oil supply risk re-escalating (ESCALATING), mixed tech signals (Microsoft layoffs vs. Anthropic lift), and strong macro data from Asia.