WS #11167
The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia energy war, with Ukrainian drones reaching Omsk for the first time and targeting Russia's largest oil refinery. This has caused fuel shortages, gasoline imports from India, and St. Petersburg food suppliers warning of delivery disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed, stopping 20% of global oil, with traffic declining to near nothing. The Meta (META) AI cloud monetization story continues to drive rotation out of neocloud stocks (NBIS, CRWV, IREN) and into META, with shares up ~7%. Fed Chair Warsh reiterated that inflation risks have come down, supporting Bitcoin's retest of $60,000. The ECB's Kaasik said further monetary tightening may be needed. US manufacturing output registered at 53.3, underperforming consensus of 53.9. GM's Q2 US auto sales fell 4.2% as EV demand declines. The narrative is ESCALATING for Ukraine-Russia energy attacks and STABLE for the Fed's dovish tilt.
Topics
Key developments
- Ukrainian drones reach Omsk, target Russia's largest oil refinery, causing fuel shortages
- Strait of Hormuz mostly closed, stopping 20% of global oil traffic
- Meta developing cloud computing service to sell excess AI compute capacity, shares up ~7%
- Fed Chair Warsh says inflation risks have come down, Bitcoin retests $60,000
- US manufacturing output misses consensus at 53.3 vs 53.9 expected
- GM Q2 US auto sales fall 4.2% as EV demand declines