WS #11168
The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia energy war, with Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries plunging Russia into a summer fuel crisis. Russia is now importing gasoline from India to address worsening shortages, a development corroborated by multiple sources (AP, The Deep Dive, Telegram). The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed, stopping 20% of global oil, with a ship grounding reported by Iranian state TV. This energy supply crisis is ESCALATING. Meanwhile, Meta (META) is developing a cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity, causing a rotation out of neocloud stocks (NBIS, CRWV, IREN) and into META, with shares up ~7%. Fed Chair Warsh reiterated that inflation risks have come down, supporting Bitcoin's retest of $60,000. The ECB's Kaasik said further monetary tightening may be needed. US manufacturing output registered at 53.3, underperforming consensus of 53.9. GM's Q2 US auto sales fell 4.2% as EV demand declines. A ship ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to supply disruption fears. The narrative is ESCALATING for Ukraine-Russia energy attacks and STABLE for the Fed's dovish tilt.
Topics
Key developments
- Russia imports gasoline from India as Ukrainian drone strikes cripple refinery output
- Ship runs aground in Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state TV reports
- Meta developing cloud business to sell excess AI compute capacity; shares up ~7%
- Fed Chair Warsh says inflation risks have come down; July rate-hike odds cool
- US manufacturing PMI misses consensus at 53.3 vs 53.9
- GM Q2 US auto sales fall 4.2% as EV demand declines