WS #11199

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp rotation out of technology and semiconductor stocks into value/cyclicals, with the Dow hitting a new all-time high while the Nasdaq fell 0.66%. The semiconductor selloff is driven by a report that Meta is building a cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity, raising fears of oversupply and threatening neocloud companies like CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, CNBC, Seeking Alpha, GDELT). Separately, Apple is in negotiations to buy memory chips from blacklisted Chinese firms CXMT and YMTC, confirmed by Bloomberg and FT, which could pressure margins and geopolitics. SoftBank has reopened talks for a $10B margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake, now offering a corporate guarantee, with Goldman, JPMorgan, and Mizuho expected to participate. This counters the previous narrative that the loan had stalled. Oil prices fell to four-month lows on US-Iran talks and OPEC+ dynamics, with WTI at $68.03. The US has decided not to renew the USMCA trade deal with Canada and Mexico, opting for annual reviews instead. Fed Chair Warsh signaled inflation risks have eased but stuck to the 2% target, disappointing rate-cut hopes. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the tech rotation and de-escalating for oil/geopolitical risk.