WS #11200
The dominant signal in this window is the continuation of the tech rotation, with the Nasdaq Composite closing down 0.66% while the Dow hit a new all-time high intraday. The semiconductor selloff deepened, with KLA (-11.77%), Teradyne (-11.68%), and Micron (-10.57%) among the worst performers, driven by Meta's cloud pivot announcement (META +8.81%) which threatens neocloud providers like CoreWeave (-13.92%) and Nebius (-17.01%). This narrative is ESCALATING. Separately, SoftBank has renewed talks for a $10B margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake, now offering a corporate guarantee, with Goldman, JPMorgan, and Mizuho expected to participate — this counters the previous narrative that the loan had stalled. The US-Iran Doha talks showed positive progress, with US restoring oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices subdued (WTI ~$69.82). Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks have eased but stuck to the 2% target, disappointing rate-cut hopes. Michael Burry disclosed a short position in Caterpillar (CAT -6.90%), adding to the industrial/cyclical bearish signal. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the tech rotation and DE-ESCALATING for oil/geopolitical risk.
Topics
Key developments
- Nasdaq falls 0.66% as semiconductor rout deepens; Dow hits new all-time high
- Meta cloud pivot sends META up 8.8%, crushes neocloud competitors CoreWeave and Nebius
- SoftBank renews talks for $10B OpenAI margin loan with corporate guarantee
- US-Iran Doha talks show positive progress; US restores oil flow through Strait of Hormuz
- Fed Chair Warsh says inflation risks eased but sticks to 2% target
- Michael Burry discloses short position in Caterpillar; CAT falls 6.9%