WS #11299

The dominant narrative in this window is a de-escalation of the Iran-US conflict, with a ceasefire in the Middle East leading to falling energy prices and a shift in central bank rhetoric. The ECB's Schnabel and Lagarde both noted the ceasefire's positive impact on inflation, while the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but with a more dovish tone as energy prices fell. The Fed's Waller acknowledged the conflict's duration has made him more concerned about inflation, but the June FOMC statement was less hawkish. Gold prices are set for their first weekly gain in a month as markets scale back Fed rate hike bets after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report (57,000 vs 115,000 expected). The UK June composite PMI missed expectations, remaining in contraction at 49.3. China scrapped annual vehicle tax exemption for some NEVs, sparing battery electric passenger cars but impacting plug-in hybrids and commercial EVs from 2027. The Bank of Russia said 'everything is ready' for the digital ruble rollout in September. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency is moving 'purposely' to make the US the crypto capital of the world. US stocks saw the largest outflows in over three months, per BofA. The IMF warned tokenization could make finance faster but more susceptible to shocks. Global food prices fell in June as the ceasefire reduced supply chain disruption concerns. The US Supreme Court boosted Trump's power to fire officials but carved out protections for the Fed, blocking the firing of Governor Lisa Cook. Russia claimed to have taken control of Oleksandrivka in Ukraine, and Ukraine launched a large drone attack on Russia, with 660 drones downed overnight. The UN warned of extreme weather events as El Niño intensifies. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on the Iran conflict, with energy prices falling and central banks becoming less hawkish, but the situation remains fragile.