WS #11300

The dominant narrative remains the de-escalation of the Iran-US conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and oil prices falling. UBS slashed its Brent forecast to $80/bbl for H2 2026, citing 50% recovery in Hormuz flows. Iran's military command issued a new threat demanding tankers use approved routes or face a 'forceful response,' but a US official said the Strait is open and Trump made clear Iran cannot impose fees. This counter-signal dampens the bearish energy thesis. Asian stocks rebounded sharply on dovish Fed bets and easing Iran tensions, with KOSPI surging 4.8% and tech stocks recovering. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $221.7M inflows, the strongest since early May, ending a 10-day outflow streak. Alibaba agreed to pay $600M to settle DOJ allegations over illegal drug shipments. HCL Tech won a $1.14B AI/digital transformation deal with a Fortune Global 50 company (reportedly Mercedes-Benz). The narrative arc is STABLE on the Iran conflict, with de-escalation continuing but new threats creating uncertainty.