WS #11324

The dominant narrative in this window is the rapid normalization of oil supply following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with multiple sources confirming a surge in OPEC+ production and Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz. This has driven Brent crude below $70 for the first time since before the Iran war, with Citigroup forecasting a further decline to $60/barrel by year-end. The oil glut is deepening as UAE exports hit records and Saudi loadings approach pre-war levels, creating a surplus that is crushing prices. Countering the bearish oil thesis, the U.S. Senate voted to halt the Iran war, and the acting DNI fired over 30 intel officials, but these are largely symbolic or political noise. Meanwhile, Tesla delivered a strong Q2 sales beat (+25% YoY) and launched robotaxi service in Miami, contradicting the broader EV slowdown narrative. The weak U.S. jobs report (57K vs 110K expected) has eased rate hike fears, boosting Bitcoin and growth stocks. ECB officials signaled vigilance on rates, but the euro struggled to gain. Overall, the oil supply surge is the most significant market-moving signal, with second-order effects on airlines, refiners, and consumer stocks.