WS #11325

The dominant narrative in this window is the rapid normalization of oil supply following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with multiple sources confirming a surge in OPEC+ production and Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz. This has driven Brent crude below $70 for the first time since before the Iran war, with Citigroup forecasting a further decline to $60/barrel by year-end. The oil glut is deepening as UAE exports hit records and Saudi loadings approach pre-war levels, creating a surplus that is crushing prices. Countering the bearish oil thesis, the U.S. Senate voted to halt the Iran war, and the acting DNI fired over 30 intel officials, but these are largely symbolic or political noise. Meanwhile, Tesla delivered a strong Q2 sales beat (+25% YoY) and launched robotaxi service in Miami, contradicting the broader EV slowdown narrative. The weak U.S. jobs report (57K vs 110K expected) has eased rate hike fears, boosting Bitcoin and growth stocks. ECB officials signaled vigilance on rates, but the euro struggled to gain. Overall, the oil supply surge is the most significant market-moving signal, with second-order effects on airlines, refiners, and consumer stocks. Key developments include: (1) U.S.-Iran peace talks paused until mid-July with Hormuz disputes stalling progress, but oil flows continue to normalize; (2) Tesla's Q2 deliveries beat estimates and robotaxi launch in Miami, but stock fell 7.5% on profit-taking; (3) Weak U.S. jobs data crushes Fed rate hike bets, driving dollar lower and crypto higher; (4) NATO summit draft affirms $80B military aid for Ukraine, escalating geopolitical tensions; (5) Russia's fuel crisis deepens after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, with Moscow importing gasoline from India. The oil supply normalization narrative is DE-ESCALATING in terms of conflict risk but ESCALATING in terms of market impact as the glut grows.