WS #11327

The dominant narrative remains the rapid normalization of oil supply following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with Gulf oil exports surging and Brent crude below $70. However, Iran's military command has issued a new threat warning oil tankers to use approved routes in the Strait of Hormuz or face a 'forceful response,' escalating tensions and countering the prevailing de-escalation thesis. This is a significant counter-signal that could reverse the recent oil price decline. Separately, the EU's top court has sealed Google's record €4.1 billion Android antitrust fine, killing Alphabet's final appeal and opening the door for follow-on damages claims across Europe, a bearish development for GOOGL. Tesla's Q2 deliveries beat estimates at 480,126 vehicles, but the stock fell 7.5% on profit-taking, continuing the pattern of sell-on-news. The weak U.S. jobs report (57K vs 110K expected) has crushed Fed rate hike bets, driving a dollar selloff and boosting risk assets. The NATO summit draft affirms $80B military aid for Ukraine, escalating geopolitical tensions. The oil supply normalization narrative is now facing a counter-signal from Iran's Hormuz threat, making the oil outlook more uncertain. The weak jobs data continues to counter the hawkish Fed narrative, supporting equities and crypto.