WS #11326

The dominant narrative remains the rapid normalization of oil supply following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with Gulf oil exports surging in June on record UAE flows, driving Brent crude below $70. The U.S.-Iran peace talks are paused until mid-July due to Hormuz and Lebanon disputes, but oil flows continue to recover. The weak U.S. jobs report (57K vs 110K expected) has crushed Fed rate hike bets, driving a dollar selloff and boosting risk assets like Bitcoin and growth stocks. Tesla's Q2 deliveries beat estimates and robotaxi service launched in Miami, but the stock fell 7.5% on profit-taking. The NATO summit draft affirms $80B military aid for Ukraine, escalating geopolitical tensions. Russia's fuel crisis deepens after a refinery strike destroyed 9% of Southern Federal District refining capacity. The oil supply normalization narrative is DE-ESCALATING in conflict risk but ESCALATING in market impact as the glut grows. Countering the bearish oil thesis, the U.S. Senate voted to halt the Iran war, but this is largely symbolic. The weak jobs data counters the hawkish Fed narrative, boosting equities and crypto.