WS #11431

The dominant signal in this window is the de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with multiple sources (GDELT, BBC, AP, Al Jazeera, The Hindu) reporting that the Iranian funeral for Khamenei is underway, while Iran warns France and UK to stay away from Hormuz and insists on 'service fees' for passage. However, a key counter-signal is the OPEC+ agreement to increase oil production by 188,000 bpd from August, which combined with resumed LNG shipments (India withdrawing emergency gas curbs) is pushing oil prices lower. The oil price narrative is shifting from supply disruption to oversupply, with analysts predicting WTI could fall to $64/bbl. Separately, SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, which will force index funds to buy shares, providing a near-term catalyst. Tesla has imposed a $200/week cap on AI tool spending for employees, signaling cost discipline. Michael Burry's short positions against MU, NVDA, and TSLA continue to be discussed but are not new this window. The dominant theme is DE-ESCALATING on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with oil prices declining and supply normalizing.