WS #11432

The dominant signal in this window is the continued de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with multiple sources (GDELT, AFP, Central News Agency, Business Standard) reporting that OPEC+ is expected to raise oil production quotas by 188,000 bpd at today's meeting, as Middle East tensions ease following the US-Iran MOU. This is corroborated by reports that India has lifted its emergency LNG supply restrictions as Hormuz shipments resume, and that oil prices have fallen back to near pre-war levels. The narrative is firmly DE-ESCALATING on the geopolitical front, with oil supply normalizing. Separately, Foxconn reported strong Q2 revenue (+39.83% Y/Y) and June revenue (+52.11% Y/Y), with AI rack shipments expected to maintain growth in Q3, providing a bullish signal for the AI supply chain. Microsoft announced a new AI business unit (Microsoft Frontier Co) with 6,000+ employees and $2.5B in backing, signaling continued enterprise AI investment. A key counter-signal to the prevailing oil bearishness is the report that Big Oil is reconsidering Alaska drilling, with record lease bids from Exxon, Shell, and Repsol, indicating long-term supply concerns persist despite near-term de-escalation. The Putin-Trump 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine is confirmed by multiple sources (Kyiv Post, Brisbane Times, EA WorldView), but no concrete breakthrough is reported, so this is a stable development rather than a new catalyst.