WS #11587

The dominant signal in this window is a significant escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Multiple sources (Axios, Reuters, Kpler) confirm that Iran's IRGC has attacked commercial ships near the Strait, with a Qatari LNG tanker hit and crew being evacuated. This has driven oil prices up 1.5% (Brent to $73, WTI near $70). The crisis is escalating, not de-escalating, as the previous window suggested. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russia's largest oil refinery in Omsk, Siberia, further tightening global fuel supply. On the macro front, Saudi Arabia is discounting crude for the first time since 2020, signaling weakening demand, while the World Bank cut global growth to 2.5% and China's growth forecast to 4.4%. In tech, DeepSeek is designing its own AI chip, pressuring Nvidia, and Samsung's record profit failed to lift chip stocks as AI trade spreads beyond Mag7. Nigel Farage will make a statement on his future at 2PM BST, adding UK political uncertainty. Counter-signals: Iraq boosted oil output to full capacity at three southern fields, partially offsetting supply fears. Indian state refiners are back to buying Iraqi crude via Hormuz, suggesting tentative reopening.