WS #11588

The dominant signal in this window is the French appeals court ruling against Marine Le Pen, finding her guilty of misusing public funds. The court noted the facts are serious and involve over 2 million euros, but the immediate ban on public office is not automatic. This creates political uncertainty in France, potentially impacting French sovereign spreads and European financials. Separately, the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to escalate: a Qatari LNG tanker that was attacked is at risk of exploding due to a fire in its engine room, per Reuters. This adds to the oil supply disruption narrative. On the tech side, Nvidia shares are trading lower on reports that China's DeepSeek is developing its own AI chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia. Additionally, Broadcom slipped 3% premarket after an Erste Group downgrade on valuation. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 today, with analysts initiating coverage with price targets around $246-$250, and JPMorgan-cited forced buying of $4.3B. Coinbase secured a UK license to offer equities and derivatives, boosting its 'Everything Exchange' strategy. The UK political scene sees Nigel Farage set to make a statement on his future at 2PM BST, with reports he may step down as Reform UK leader. The NATO summit in Ankara is underway, with Ukraine's Zelenskyy calling for air defenses and noting that Ukrainian drones have struck every major Russian oil refinery, including the Omsk refinery in Siberia. This is a significant escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, tightening global fuel supply. Counter-signals: Iraq boosted oil output to full capacity at three southern fields, partially offsetting supply fears. Indian state refiners are back to buying Iraqi crude via Hormuz, suggesting tentative reopening.