WS #11589

The dominant signal in this window is the French appeals court ruling on Marine Le Pen: the court upheld her conviction for embezzling EU funds but shortened her electoral ban, technically reopening a path to the 2027 presidency, while also handing her a three-year jail term with one year under electronic tag. This creates political uncertainty in France, potentially impacting French sovereign spreads and European financials. Separately, the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to escalate: two tankers hit, one still at risk of exploding, per multiple sources. The IEA warns gas demand set for first drop since 2022 on Iran war. Counter-signals: Iraq boosted oil output, Indian state refiners back to buying Iraqi crude via Hormuz. On the tech side, Nvidia shares are trading lower on reports that China's DeepSeek is developing its own AI chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia. Additionally, Amazon seeks to raise at least $25B from a bond sale to fund AI infrastructure buildout. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 today, but historical data suggests index inclusion is not always a bullish catalyst. Coinbase secured a UK license to offer equities and derivatives. The UK political scene sees Nigel Farage set to make a statement on his future at 2PM BST. The NATO summit in Ankara is underway, with Ukraine's Zelenskyy calling for air defenses and noting that Ukrainian drones have struck every major Russian oil refinery, including the Omsk refinery in Siberia. This is a significant escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, tightening global fuel supply. Macro data: US trade deficit widened less than expected ($77.6B vs $78.0B est.), Treasury yields sliding, bonds rallying. ADP employment change weekly slowed to 21K vs 30.75K prior. European companies expected to report 11.4% increase in Q2 revenue. Gold extended a pullback from a two-week high. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Ukraine-Russia conflict, while the Le Pen situation is STABLE with a slight de-escalation in the ban length.