WS #11592

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks, with a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker struck by projectiles as they exited the strait. The UKMTO confirmed structural damage to the tanker, and a separate report of a Qatari LNG tanker engine room fire adds to the risk. This marks a significant escalation despite the US-Iran agreement to halt attacks, directly threatening global energy supply. The narrative arc for the Hormuz crisis is now ESCALATING. Separately, Trump confirmed at the NATO summit in Ankara that the US will lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, a major geopolitical shift that could unlock F-35 sales and reduce risk premiums in Turkish and European defense sectors. This narrative is DE-ESCALATING. In corporate news, DigitalOcean guided Q2 revenue growth acceleration to 29% and RPO to exceed $800M, a strong signal for the cloud infrastructure space. Amazon is launching a $25B bond sale to fund AI infrastructure, reinforcing the massive capital expenditure cycle in tech. Nvidia continues to face headwinds from China's DeepSeek developing its own AI chips, a bearish signal for NVDA. Bitcoin has rebounded above $63,000 with BlackRock ending an 11-day ETF selling streak, providing a positive crypto sentiment signal. Additionally, Ukraine struck eight shadow fleet tankers near Crimea and the Omsk Oil Refinery, further tightening Russian oil supply. The IEA warns global gas demand is poised for its first annual drop since 2022 due to higher prices from the Iran war. Germany's oil stocking agency is refilling its strategic reserve, a counter-signal to oil supply fears.