WS #11593

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis, with a StealthGas vessel confirming it safely exited the strait after being stranded, while a tanker sustained damage from an unidentified projectile. OPEC+ is raising output for a fifth straight month as shipping recovers, and Germany's oil stocking agency is refilling its strategic reserve, acting as a counter-signal to supply fears. Separately, Trump confirmed the US will lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, a major geopolitical shift that could unlock F-35 sales and reduce risk premiums in Turkish and European defense sectors. In corporate news, Amazon is raising at least $25 billion in a bond sale to fund AI infrastructure, reinforcing the massive capital expenditure cycle in tech. DigitalOcean guided Q2 revenue growth acceleration to 29% and RPO exceeding $800M, a strong signal for the cloud infrastructure space. Nvidia faces headwinds from DeepSeek's AI chip push in China, contributing to a broader chip sector sell-off. Bitcoin has rebounded above $63,000 with BlackRock ending an 11-day ETF selling streak, providing a positive crypto sentiment signal. Additionally, Ukraine struck eight shadow fleet tankers near Crimea and the Omsk Oil Refinery, further tightening Russian oil supply. The IEA warns global gas demand is poised for its first annual drop since 2022 due to higher prices from the Iran war. The narrative arc for the Hormuz crisis is STABLE (no new attacks in this window, but risk remains elevated), while the Turkey sanctions lift is DE-ESCALATING. The tech selloff narrative is ESCALATING due to DeepSeek concerns.