WS #11629

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with the US launching new airstrikes against Iran and revoking the oil sanctions waiver after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This represents an escalation from the previous stable narrative, with the ceasefire effectively collapsing. Oil prices have surged, with Brent above $75 and WTI near $72. The escalation is bearish for risk assets broadly, bullish for energy stocks (XOM, CVX, XLE), and bearish for airlines and consumer discretionary. Iran's top negotiator Qalibaf has accused the US of violating the MOU, and Bahrain has sounded missile alert sirens. Separately, AI stocks sank globally, dragging markets lower, with the Nasdaq composite down 1.2% and the S&P 500 down 0.4%. Samsung Electronics tumbled 6.9% despite strong earnings, and AMD, Intel, and Micron fell sharply. Microsoft announced layoffs of 4,800 employees in Xbox, and the RBNZ raised its OCR by 25bp to 2.50% as expected. The US-Iran escalation is the primary market-moving event, with cross-source corroboration from AP, Reuters, CENTCOM, and multiple global news outlets.