WS #11630

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with the US launching over 80 strikes on Iranian targets and revoking the oil sanctions waiver after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This represents an escalation from the previous stable narrative, with the ceasefire effectively collapsing. Oil prices have surged, with Brent above $75 and WTI near $72. The escalation is bearish for risk assets broadly, bullish for energy stocks (XOM, CVX, XLE), and bearish for airlines and consumer discretionary. Iran has launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain, and drones toward Bahrain, further escalating the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz transit has collapsed by 95% below pre-war levels. Separately, the Trump administration has lifted restrictions on OpenAI's GPT-5.6, a bullish signal for AI-related tech stocks. The RBNZ raised rates by 25bp to 2.50% as expected, with Governor Breman indicating gradual moves toward neutral. Samsung has begun mass production of high-speed AI SSD for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, bullish for NVDA and Samsung. The US-Iran escalation is the primary market-moving event, with cross-source corroboration from AP, Reuters, CENTCOM, and multiple global news outlets.