WS #11649

The US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed, with President Trump declaring the MOU 'over' and threatening further strikes, including on Kharg Island. Multiple sources (Reuters, BBC, GDELT, Al Jazeera) corroborate the breakdown, with Trump calling Iranian leaders 'scum' and warning of imminent new strikes. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested US oil should trade at a premium, reinforcing the energy supply disruption narrative. EIA data showed a crude build of 3M barrels vs a 1.9M draw expected, but gasoline and distillate draws were larger than forecast, supporting oil prices. The macro narrative is ESCALATING: oil supply risk is rising, risk-off sentiment is spreading (SPY -0.6%, QQQ -0.3%, TSLA -1.9%), and hedge funds are reportedly dumping chip stocks for a fourth straight week. A counter-signal emerged: Merz (German Chancellor) stated there must be a sustainable deal with Iran, blaming Iran for the ceasefire violation, suggesting European diplomatic efforts continue. Additionally, Trump offered Zelenskyy a license to produce Patriot missiles, which could offset defense spending concerns. Waymo expanded to four new cities, supporting GOOGL. Blue Origin is reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation, a positive for space/defense. The dominant theme is US-Iran escalation with oil price implications, while tech faces headwinds from geopolitical risk and valuation concerns.