WS #11650

The US-Iran ceasefire has definitively collapsed, with President Trump declaring the MOU 'over' and threatening further strikes, including on Kharg Island. Multiple sources (Reuters, BBC, GDELT, Al Jazeera) corroborate the breakdown, with Trump calling Iranian leaders 'scum' and warning of imminent new strikes. Iran's Press TV, citing an informed source, threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of any fresh attacks, and to strike enemy targets at a ratio of at least two to one. This escalation has sent oil prices surging over 5% (WTI +5.27%, Brent +5.66%), triggered a broad risk-off move in equities (SPY -0.6%, QQQ -0.3%), and pushed Bitcoin below $62,000. The macro narrative is ESCALATING: oil supply risk is rising, risk-off sentiment is spreading, and hedge funds are reportedly dumping chip stocks for a fourth straight week. A counter-signal emerged: Merz (German Chancellor) stated there must be a sustainable deal with Iran, blaming Iran for the ceasefire violation, suggesting European diplomatic efforts continue. Additionally, Trump offered Zelenskyy a license to produce Patriot missiles, which could offset defense spending concerns. Blue Origin is reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation, a positive for space/defense. The dominant theme is US-Iran escalation with oil price implications, while tech faces headwinds from geopolitical risk and valuation concerns.