WS #11657

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran hostilities. President Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' at the NATO summit, and both sides have conducted strikes. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and strike twice as many targets if attacked again. Oil prices surged over 7% (WTI ~$75.75, Brent ~$80), and European/US equity markets opened sharply lower. Separately, Russia banned diesel exports due to domestic shortages from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, sending European diesel margins to a record $60/bbl. This adds a second supply-side shock to energy markets. In tech, Apple announced a $30B+ chip deal with Broadcom (AVGO), boosting AVGO significantly. The US-Iran narrative is ESCALATING, with no counter-signals yet. The Russia diesel ban is a new development that compounds energy supply fears.