WS #11658

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' at the NATO summit and threatening further strikes. Iran has responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz after each US attack. Oil prices surged over 7% (WTI ~$75.75, Brent ~$80), driving energy stocks higher while airlines and travel booking companies fell. European and US equity markets opened sharply lower. Separately, Russia banned diesel exports due to domestic shortages from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, sending European diesel margins to a record $60/bbl, compounding energy supply fears. In tech, Apple announced a $30B+ chip deal with Broadcom (AVGO), boosting AVGO significantly. The US-Iran narrative is ESCALATING, with no counter-signals yet. The Russia diesel ban is a new development that compounds energy supply fears.