WS #11668

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran tensions after President Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' at the NATO summit in Ankara. This triggered a sharp spike in oil prices (Brent +5-6% to ~$78.5, WTI +5-6% to ~$74.8), a selloff in global equities (S&P 500 -0.6%, Dow -1%, European indices down), and a drop in Bitcoin below $62k. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked further, while European shipping firms confirm they have not returned to the strait. The Fed minutes released at 2pm ET showed a split committee: all voted to hold rates at 3.5-3.75%, but a 'few' saw a case for hiking, and staff inflation forecasts were revised higher due to the Middle East war and AI buildout. This reinforces the stagflationary risk from higher oil. Separately, Apple announced a $30B+ multi-year chipmaking partnership with Broadcom, sending AVGO up ~3%. SpaceXAI launched Grok 4.5, claiming it is competitive with Claude Opus 4.7 at lower cost. The E. Jean Carroll $5.8M payment order is a political story with no direct market impact. The US-Iran situation is ESCALATING, with oil prices surging and risk assets selling off. The Fed minutes add a hawkish undertone, confirming the committee is alert to inflation risks from the conflict.