WS #11669

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the further escalation of US-Iran tensions, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' and threatening new strikes. This has driven a sharp oil price surge (Brent +5-6% to ~$78.5, WTI +5-6% to ~$74.8), a selloff in global equities (Dow -1%, S&P 500 -0.6%), and a drop in gold. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz after any US attack, while shipowners are reassessing transit risks. The Fed minutes released at 2pm ET confirmed a hawkish hold: all voted to hold rates at 3.5-3.75%, but a 'few' saw a case for hiking, and staff inflation forecasts were revised higher due to the Middle East war and AI buildout. This reinforces the stagflationary risk from higher oil. Separately, Russia banned all diesel exports after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, adding further upward pressure on global fuel markets. The Apple-Broadcom chip deal (AVGO up ~3%) and SpaceXAI's Grok 4.5 launch are secondary signals. The US-Iran situation is ESCALATING, with oil prices surging and risk assets selling off. The Fed minutes add a hawkish undertone, confirming the committee is alert to inflation risks from the conflict.