WS #11671

The US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed, with President Trump declaring the MoU 'over' and threatening further strikes, including potentially seizing Iran's Kharg Island. Iran has retaliated by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz entirely and strike twice as hard. Oil prices surged ~5% (Brent to ~$78, WTI to ~$74) as the Strait remains contested, with at least one Qatari LNG tanker hit and stranded. The S&P 500 fell ~0.6%, the Dow dropped ~535 points, and high-multiple tech stocks (Paycom, Workday, Flywire, Wix, nCino) sold off sharply on risk-off rotation and rising bond yields. The Fed's June FOMC minutes revealed a deeply divided committee, with 'a few' officials seeing a case for immediate rate hikes and 'almost all' agreeing hikes would be needed if inflation stays elevated. Staff raised inflation forecasts due to the Iran war and AI buildout. Russia banned diesel exports until July 31 after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, adding to global fuel supply tightness. SpaceXAI launched Grok 4.5, and ChatGPT-5.6 is expected Thursday, keeping AI competition intense. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING: the Iran situation is deteriorating rapidly, with no de-escalation signals, and the Fed is hawkish, compounding the risk-off move.