WS #11672

The US-Iran ceasefire has definitively collapsed, with President Trump declaring the MoU 'over' and threatening further strikes. Iran has retaliated by attacking three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US airstrikes and the revocation of Iran's oil sales license. Oil prices surged ~7% (Brent to ~$79, WTI to ~$74), the Dow dropped ~800 points, and the S&P 500 fell ~0.8% as risk-off rotation punished high-multiple tech stocks. The Fed's June FOMC minutes confirmed deep divisions, with 'a few' officials seeing a case for immediate rate hikes and 'almost all' agreeing hikes would be needed if inflation stays elevated, while staff raised inflation forecasts due to the Iran war. Russia's diesel export ban until July 31 adds to global fuel supply tightness. SpaceXAI launched Grok 4.5, and ChatGPT-5.6 is expected Thursday, keeping AI competition intense. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING: the Iran situation is deteriorating rapidly with no de-escalation signals, and the Fed is hawkish, compounding the risk-off move. Key counter-signals: Trump's comment that 'anything that happens will be over quickly' and the muted initial gasoline price response suggest markets may not price in a full-blown protracted war, but the risk of a prolonged Strait closure remains high.