WS #11734

The dominant narrative in this window is a significant escalation in US-Iran hostilities, with multiple sources confirming renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, effectively collapsing the fragile ceasefire. Despite this, oil prices are slipping and US stock markets are opening higher, led by semiconductors, as President Trump's comments that Iran is 'desperate' for peace and that he doesn't think a full-scale war will restart are calming immediate war-risk premiums. The market is pricing in a contained conflict or diplomatic resolution, but the Strait of Hormuz shipping remains near standstill, and the risk of supply disruption persists. Separately, Meta rolled out a cheaper AI model API at ~25% of OpenAI/Anthropic pricing, a significant competitive move. Micron shares surged past $1,000 after announcing a $250B US expansion plan, lifting the semiconductor sector. On the MAG7 front, Meta's AI pricing move is a key development, while Apple faces EU court defeat on DMA 'gatekeeper' status. The previous narrative of a stable ceasefire has been replaced by active military escalation, but the market's counterintuitive calm suggests a de-escalation narrative is gaining traction.