WS #11735

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING after renewed US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, collapsing the ceasefire. However, oil prices are slipping and US stock markets are opening higher, led by semiconductors, as President Trump's comments that Iran is 'desperate' for peace and that he doesn't think a full-scale war will restart are calming immediate war-risk premiums. The market is pricing in a contained conflict or diplomatic resolution, but the Strait of Hormuz shipping remains near standstill, and the risk of supply disruption persists. Separately, OpenAI officially launched GPT-5.6 and ChatGPT Work, a major competitive move in AI. Micron shares surged past $1,000 after announcing a $250B US expansion plan, lifting the semiconductor sector. On the MAG7 front, Apple lost its EU court challenge on DMA 'gatekeeper' status, a negative regulatory signal. Anthropic appointed former Fed Chair Bernanke to its oversight body, a significant AI governance signal. Russia introduced a ban on diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, tightening global fuel supply. Pakistan and Qatar are mediating between US and Iran, a potential de-escalation signal. The previous narrative of a stable ceasefire has been replaced by active military escalation, but the market's counterintuitive calm suggests a de-escalation narrative is gaining traction.