WS #11769

The dominant macro theme is the ESCALATING US-Iran conflict, with renewed airstrikes and a near-total halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple sources (AP, Al Jazeera, GDELT, local reports) corroborate that US and Iran exchanged fire on July 9-10, with the US denying involvement in the latest strikes on southern Iran. This has caused oil prices to spike >5%, gold to rise, and Asian chip stocks to rally on AI spending hopes despite tensions. A key counter-signal emerged: a US official told Al Jazeera the US did not carry out the latest strikes on Iran, introducing uncertainty about who is responsible and potentially de-escalating fears of a full-scale war. Separately, a major MAG7 corporate development: Apple signed a $30B chip deal with Broadcom (AVGO), per Yahoo Finance, which is bullish for AVGO and AAPL. Also, SK Hynix raised $26.5B in the largest foreign IPO in US history, signaling strong AI memory demand. OpenAI's second-in-command resigned ahead of its IPO, creating management uncertainty. Russia's fuel crisis deepens as Ukrainian drone strikes knock out 20-40% of refinery capacity, per FT and Reuters sources, with Putin reportedly rejecting peace talks. The previous macro narrative of 'short-lived escalation' is now being challenged by sustained fighting and a potential new actor in the strikes, making the situation more unpredictable.