WS #11770

The dominant macro theme remains the ESCALATING US-Iran conflict, with new developments in the last 30 minutes: US President Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' after strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil to jump over 5% and global indices to sell off. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, GDELT, BBC, AP) corroborate that Ukrainian drones struck 14 vessels and fuel depots in Russia, deepening Russia's fuel crisis. A key counter-signal emerged: a US official told Al Jazeera the US did not carry out the latest strikes on Iran, introducing uncertainty about who is responsible and potentially de-escalating fears of a full-scale war. Separately, SK Hynix priced its US IPO at $149 per ADR, raising $26.5B in the largest foreign IPO in US history, signaling strong AI memory demand. Semiconductor ETFs saw record $7.1B inflows, indicating dip-buying in AI chips. Japan's June producer prices surged 7.1% Y/Y, the highest since 2023, exceeding forecasts. OpenAI and Google were reported to have sold AI model access to a China-linked blacklisted group, raising regulatory risks for AI stocks. The previous macro narrative of 'short-lived escalation' is now being challenged by sustained fighting and a potential new actor in the strikes, making the situation more unpredictable.