WS #11780

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting renewed strikes following Khamenei's burial. US strikes hit 170+ Iranian military targets over two days, and Iran retaliated against US-linked sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Strait of Hormuz flow has dropped 60%, and the IEA reports global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as shipping resumed but remains 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. This geopolitical escalation is the primary market-moving factor, with direct implications for oil prices, energy stocks, and risk sentiment. Separately, Delta Air Lines reported earnings showing higher fares and strong travel demand helped absorb the fuel spike, but shares turned defensive as oil prices surged. On the tech side, SK Hynix is expected to debut on Nasdaq today after a $26.5B IPO, and Meta faces potential EU fines over addictive features. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the US-Iran conflict, with no de-escalation signals in this window.