WS #11781

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting renewed strikes following Khamenei's burial. US strikes hit 170+ Iranian military targets over two days, and Iran retaliated against US-linked sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Strait of Hormuz flow has dropped 60%, and the IEA reports global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as shipping resumed but remains 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. This geopolitical escalation is the primary market-moving factor, with direct implications for oil prices, energy stocks, and risk sentiment. Separately, Delta Air Lines reported earnings showing higher fares and strong travel demand helped absorb the fuel spike, but shares turned defensive as oil prices surged. On the tech side, SK Hynix is expected to debut on Nasdaq today after a $26.5B IPO, and Meta faces potential EU fines over addictive features. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the US-Iran conflict, with no de-escalation signals in this window. New developments in this window include: Circle ($CRCL) surged 15% after OCC approval to operate as a trust bank, a significant regulatory milestone for stablecoin infrastructure. OpenAI's No. 2 executive Fidji Simo is stepping down, adding to leadership uncertainty ahead of a potential IPO. China temporarily halted helium exports, threatening semiconductor and medical imaging supply chains. Qatar is mediating US-Iran talks, which could be a de-escalation signal if confirmed. Shein received approval for a Hong Kong listing and may compensate investors for valuation reductions. Susquehanna is stepping back from China venture deals, signaling reduced appetite for Chinese tech exposure. The SOX index is flashing technical warning signs of a potential 17% drawdown, per BTIG. Russian gasoline output fell to 65% of seasonal average due to Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, with Deputy PM Novak directly linking fuel shortages to the attacks.