WS #11961

The US-Iran conflict is escalating sharply, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz and warning that US interference jeopardizes global oil and gas supplies. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, FT, multiple Bluesky posts). In response, Dubai plans a new port to bypass the Strait, and Trump says the US should be compensated for guarding it. Strait of Hormuz ship traffic has fallen to its lowest in a month. Oil is up 3.9%, energy sector up 2.1%, while tech is down 1.1%. Yemen has closed all airports. Saudi airstrikes targeted Sanaa Airport, diverting an Iranian flight. Ukraine continues strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. The macro narrative is ESCALATING, with oil supply risk driving energy bullishness and broader market risk-off. Counter-signals include the Dubai port plan and Trump's compensation comment, which may partially offset the bullish oil thesis by suggesting alternative routes and potential de-escalation. Apple hit a record high (+2%), contradicting the broader tech selloff. META is down 6% premarket but showing a range breakout on high volume. Options flow shows aggressive call buying in UNH and WMT, and a surge in NVDA and XLE options.