WS #11962

The US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards reiterating their control and warning that US interference jeopardizes global oil and gas supplies. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, FT, Bluesky). In a potential counter-signal, Dubai (DP World) is in talks to develop a new port in Fujairah to bypass the Strait, and Trump has proposed US control over the waterway for compensation. Strait of Hormuz ship traffic has fallen to its lowest in a month. Oil is up 3.9%, energy sector up 2.1%, while tech is down 1.1%. Apple hit a record high of $322 (+2%), contradicting the broader tech selloff. Options flow shows aggressive call buying in UNH ($116M premium) and WMT ($18M premium), and a surge in NVDA and XLE options. The Paramount-WBD merger is expected to face a lawsuit from multiple states. Putin promises a more powerful response to Ukraine's strikes. The macro narrative is ESCALATING, with oil supply risk driving energy bullishness and broader market risk-off. Counter-signals include the Dubai port plan and Trump's compensation comment, which may partially offset the bullish oil thesis by suggesting alternative routes and potential de-escalation.