WS #11991

The dominant narrative is a sharp escalation in US-Iran military conflict, directly contradicting the prior ceasefire narrative. Over the weekend, US forces resumed combat operations inside Iran, and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports is set to take effect July 14. Iran's foreign minister mocked Trump's proposal to charge 20% fees for Strait of Hormuz passage, asserting Iran's guardianship. Houthi missiles were fired at Saudi Arabia, and the UK is designating Iran's IRGC as a terrorist organization. Oil prices jumped over 8% on the worsening conflict, driving a broad risk-off move: Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies plunged over 3%, airline stocks fell on fuel cost concerns, and precious metals declined on rising yields. The Fed's June minutes and hawkish commentary have lifted odds of rate hikes. TSMC's strong June-quarter sales (revenue +36% YoY) provide a bullish counter-signal for the AI infrastructure trade, confirming no slowdown in AI-chip demand. A federal judge nullified the Trump IRS settlement, sanctioning Trump's lawyers. 12 states sued to block the Paramount/WBD merger. KB Home reported a 27% revenue decline.