WS #11992

The dominant narrative remains the sharp escalation in US-Iran military conflict, which is ESCALATING further. Multiple sources confirm the US has reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports effective July 14, and Trump has declared the US the 'Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz,' demanding a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the strait. The IEA projects oil demand will fall by 1 million bpd due to the Strait closure, while the IEA is releasing 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to keep prices down—a counter-signal that dampens the oil price spike. Houthi missiles have been fired at Saudi Arabia (Abha airport, King Khalid airbase), and the UK is designating Iran's IRGC as a terrorist organization. Oil prices jumped over 8% on the worsening conflict, driving a broad risk-off move: Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies plunged over 3%, airline stocks fell on fuel cost concerns, and gold fell back below $4,000/oz. A federal judge nullified the Trump IRS settlement, sanctioning Trump's lawyers—a political development with limited market impact. TSMC's strong June-quarter sales (revenue +36% YoY, June sales +68%) provide a bullish counter-signal for the AI infrastructure trade, confirming no slowdown in AI-chip demand. 12 states sued to block the Paramount/WBD merger. KB Home reported a 27% revenue decline. Jefferies raised Tesla's price target to $400. The US June budget deficit widened to $120 billion due to tariff refunds.