WS #12052

The dominant signal in this window is a major de-escalation on the Strait of Hormuz front: Trump announced he is replacing the planned 20% cargo fee with trade and investment deals with Gulf states, and declared the strait open to all ship traffic except Iranian ports. This directly counters the prior bearish oil thesis and has already caused oil futures to pare gains and turn negative. Separately, IBM cratered ~23% premarket after a Q2 earnings warning, dragging Microsoft down 3.3% and raising contagion fears across enterprise tech. New York Governor Hochul imposed a one-year moratorium on data centers over 50MW, a negative for data center REITs and hyperscalers. Fed Chair Warsh testified, striking a hawkish tone on inflation but noting no cruel choice between price stability and employment. On the geopolitical side, ballistic missiles struck a US base in Jordan, Kuwait intercepted aerial targets, and the Houthis announced an air blockade of Saudi airspace, but the Hormuz de-escalation is the dominant market-moving counter-signal.