WS #12053

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation of a major de-escalation on the Strait of Hormuz front: Trump has officially scrapped the planned 20% cargo fee, replacing it with trade and investment deals with Gulf states, and declared the strait open to all ships except those to/from Iran. This directly counters the prior bearish oil thesis and has already caused oil futures to pare gains. Separately, IBM cratered ~23% premarket after a Q2 earnings warning, dragging Microsoft down 3.3% and raising contagion fears across enterprise tech. New York Governor Hochul imposed a one-year moratorium on data centers over 50MW, a negative for data center REITs and hyperscalers. Fed Chair Warsh testified, striking a hawkish tone on inflation but noting no cruel choice between price stability and employment. On the geopolitical side, ballistic missiles struck a US base in Jordan, Kuwait intercepted aerial targets, and the Houthis announced an air blockade of Saudi airspace, but the Hormuz de-escalation is the dominant market-moving counter-signal. Additionally, JPMorgan reported a strong beat (EPS $7.70 vs $5.80 est), and AMD surged 4% on multiple analyst upgrades. The June CPI came in cooler than expected at 3.5% YoY vs 3.8% consensus, boosting risk appetite and Bitcoin above $64K.