WS #12059

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran conflict ESCALATING, with multiple cross-corroborated developments: US launched a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, hitting Kish Island infrastructure, while Trump initially announced a 20% fee on Hormuz cargo but then backtracked, replacing it with vague 'trade deals'. This flip-flop is a counter-signal that dampens the oil supply crisis narrative. Separately, IBM's historic 25%+ plunge after a Q2 earnings miss and HSBC downgrade is a major tech sector signal, with contagion to Microsoft and other software names. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs posted strong beats, but the IBM shock dominates. Apple received a rare KeyBanc downgrade to Underweight, adding to tech headwinds. The New York data center moratorium continues to hit CleanSpark and TeraWulf. The Fed's Warsh testimony offered no new rate guidance, keeping the July meeting uncertain. The E. Jean Carroll payment is noise for markets. The Houthi warning to airlines and India summoning Iran's envoy add geopolitical friction but are secondary to the Hormuz developments.